Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis
Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. Th...
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Song, Ce [verfasserIn] |
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Englisch |
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2021 |
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Enthalten in: Clean Products and Processes - Springer-Verlag, 2001, 24(2021), 4 vom: 26. Nov., Seite 1219-1240 |
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volume:24 ; year:2021 ; number:4 ; day:26 ; month:11 ; pages:1219-1240 |
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10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 |
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| 520 | |a Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. | ||
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10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046719229 (SPR)s10098-021-02240-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Song, Ce verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-4148-6185 aut Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. Carbon emissions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Decomposition model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scenario analysis (dpeaa)DE-He213 Provincial analysis (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhao, Tao aut Wang, Juan aut Enthalten in Clean Products and Processes Springer-Verlag, 2001 24(2021), 4 vom: 26. Nov., Seite 1219-1240 (DE-627)SPR008711836 nnns volume:24 year:2021 number:4 day:26 month:11 pages:1219-1240 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 24 2021 4 26 11 1219-1240 |
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10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046719229 (SPR)s10098-021-02240-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Song, Ce verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-4148-6185 aut Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. Carbon emissions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Decomposition model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scenario analysis (dpeaa)DE-He213 Provincial analysis (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhao, Tao aut Wang, Juan aut Enthalten in Clean Products and Processes Springer-Verlag, 2001 24(2021), 4 vom: 26. Nov., Seite 1219-1240 (DE-627)SPR008711836 nnns volume:24 year:2021 number:4 day:26 month:11 pages:1219-1240 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 24 2021 4 26 11 1219-1240 |
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10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 doi (DE-627)SPR046719229 (SPR)s10098-021-02240-7-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Song, Ce verfasserin (orcid)0000-0003-4148-6185 aut Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis 2021 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. Carbon emissions (dpeaa)DE-He213 Decomposition model (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scenario analysis (dpeaa)DE-He213 Provincial analysis (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zhao, Tao aut Wang, Juan aut Enthalten in Clean Products and Processes Springer-Verlag, 2001 24(2021), 4 vom: 26. Nov., Seite 1219-1240 (DE-627)SPR008711836 nnns volume:24 year:2021 number:4 day:26 month:11 pages:1219-1240 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02240-7 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER AR 24 2021 4 26 11 1219-1240 |
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Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Energy and environmental policies are important methods for the government to restrain carbon emissions growth. Identifying the potential dynamic trends of China's carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference significance for the government's policy implementation. This paper firstly predicted China's carbon emissions from 2017 to 2040 based on three energy transition scenarios at the industrial level. Then, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of emissions changes during 1997–2040. Finally, the Spatial–Temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was used to explore the emissions reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction in energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the carbon emissions of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policies scenario, China's carbon emissions cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the carbon emissions of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce carbon emissions by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote carbon emissions reduction. Graphical abstract The framework and main content of this paper. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 |
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Analyzing driving forces of China’s carbon emissions from 1997 to 2040 and the potential emission reduction path: through decomposition and scenario analysis |
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Zhao, Tao Wang, Juan |
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