Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021
Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexp...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Autor*in: |
Cannon, David [verfasserIn] |
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Format: |
E-Artikel |
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Sprache: |
Englisch |
Erschienen: |
2023 |
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Schlagwörter: |
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Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2023 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Ocean dynamics - Berlin : Springer, 1948, 73(2023), 3-4 vom: Apr., Seite 201-218 |
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Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:73 ; year:2023 ; number:3-4 ; month:04 ; pages:201-218 |
Links: |
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DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 |
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Katalog-ID: |
SPR050049178 |
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520 | |a Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. | ||
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650 | 4 | |a Lake |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Warming |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
650 | 4 | |a Climatology |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
700 | 1 | |a Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Wang, Jia |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Kessler, James |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Chu, Philip |4 aut | |
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10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 doi (DE-627)SPR050049178 (SPR)s10236-023-01544-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Cannon, David verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-5238-6863 aut Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lake (dpeaa)DE-He213 Warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climatology (dpeaa)DE-He213 Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi aut Wang, Jia aut Kessler, James aut Chu, Philip aut Enthalten in Ocean dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1948 73(2023), 3-4 vom: Apr., Seite 201-218 (DE-627)337809313 (DE-600)2063267-8 1616-7228 nnns volume:73 year:2023 number:3-4 month:04 pages:201-218 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 73 2023 3-4 04 201-218 |
spelling |
10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 doi (DE-627)SPR050049178 (SPR)s10236-023-01544-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Cannon, David verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-5238-6863 aut Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lake (dpeaa)DE-He213 Warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climatology (dpeaa)DE-He213 Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi aut Wang, Jia aut Kessler, James aut Chu, Philip aut Enthalten in Ocean dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1948 73(2023), 3-4 vom: Apr., Seite 201-218 (DE-627)337809313 (DE-600)2063267-8 1616-7228 nnns volume:73 year:2023 number:3-4 month:04 pages:201-218 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 73 2023 3-4 04 201-218 |
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10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 doi (DE-627)SPR050049178 (SPR)s10236-023-01544-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Cannon, David verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-5238-6863 aut Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lake (dpeaa)DE-He213 Warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climatology (dpeaa)DE-He213 Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi aut Wang, Jia aut Kessler, James aut Chu, Philip aut Enthalten in Ocean dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1948 73(2023), 3-4 vom: Apr., Seite 201-218 (DE-627)337809313 (DE-600)2063267-8 1616-7228 nnns volume:73 year:2023 number:3-4 month:04 pages:201-218 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 73 2023 3-4 04 201-218 |
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10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 doi (DE-627)SPR050049178 (SPR)s10236-023-01544-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Cannon, David verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-5238-6863 aut Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lake (dpeaa)DE-He213 Warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climatology (dpeaa)DE-He213 Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi aut Wang, Jia aut Kessler, James aut Chu, Philip aut Enthalten in Ocean dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1948 73(2023), 3-4 vom: Apr., Seite 201-218 (DE-627)337809313 (DE-600)2063267-8 1616-7228 nnns volume:73 year:2023 number:3-4 month:04 pages:201-218 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 73 2023 3-4 04 201-218 |
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10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 doi (DE-627)SPR050049178 (SPR)s10236-023-01544-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Cannon, David verfasserin (orcid)0000-0001-5238-6863 aut Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lake (dpeaa)DE-He213 Warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climatology (dpeaa)DE-He213 Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi aut Wang, Jia aut Kessler, James aut Chu, Philip aut Enthalten in Ocean dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1948 73(2023), 3-4 vom: Apr., Seite 201-218 (DE-627)337809313 (DE-600)2063267-8 1616-7228 nnns volume:73 year:2023 number:3-4 month:04 pages:201-218 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_267 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 73 2023 3-4 04 201-218 |
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Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. 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Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lake (dpeaa)DE-He213 Warming (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climatology (dpeaa)DE-He213 |
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Cannon, David Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wang, Jia Kessler, James Chu, Philip |
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modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in lake michigan-huron between 1979 and 2021 |
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Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 |
abstract |
Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. © The Author(s) 2023 |
abstractGer |
Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. © The Author(s) 2023 |
abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 %$^\circ{\rm C}%$/decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region. © The Author(s) 2023 |
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container_issue |
3-4 |
title_short |
Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 |
remote_bool |
true |
author2 |
Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wang, Jia Kessler, James Chu, Philip |
author2Str |
Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi Wang, Jia Kessler, James Chu, Philip |
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doi_str |
10.1007/s10236-023-01544-0 |
up_date |
2024-07-04T03:15:19.446Z |
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score |
7.3986826 |