Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Refisch, Lukas [verfasserIn] Lorenz, Fabian Riedlinger, Torsten Taubenböck, Hannes Fischer, Martina Grabenhenrich, Linus Wolkewitz, Martin Binder, Harald Kreutz, Clemens

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2022

Schlagwörter:	COVID-19 Infectious disease models Input estimation Ordinary differential equations Parameter estimation Nonlinear systems SEIR models

Anmerkung:	© The Author(s) 2022

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: BMC medical research methodology - London : BioMed Central, 2001, 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr.
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:22 ; year:2022 ; number:1 ; day:20 ; month:04

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9

Katalog-ID:	SPR050653822

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allfields	10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 doi (DE-627)SPR050653822 (SPR)s12874-022-01579-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Refisch, Lukas verfasserin aut Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2022 Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. COVID-19 (dpeaa)DE-He213 Infectious disease models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Input estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Ordinary differential equations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Parameter estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Nonlinear systems (dpeaa)DE-He213 SEIR models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lorenz, Fabian aut Riedlinger, Torsten aut Taubenböck, Hannes aut Fischer, Martina aut Grabenhenrich, Linus aut Wolkewitz, Martin aut Binder, Harald aut Kreutz, Clemens aut Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology London : BioMed Central, 2001 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 1471-2288 nnns volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 22 2022 1 20 04
spelling	10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 doi (DE-627)SPR050653822 (SPR)s12874-022-01579-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Refisch, Lukas verfasserin aut Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2022 Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. COVID-19 (dpeaa)DE-He213 Infectious disease models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Input estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Ordinary differential equations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Parameter estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Nonlinear systems (dpeaa)DE-He213 SEIR models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lorenz, Fabian aut Riedlinger, Torsten aut Taubenböck, Hannes aut Fischer, Martina aut Grabenhenrich, Linus aut Wolkewitz, Martin aut Binder, Harald aut Kreutz, Clemens aut Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology London : BioMed Central, 2001 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 1471-2288 nnns volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 22 2022 1 20 04
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 doi (DE-627)SPR050653822 (SPR)s12874-022-01579-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Refisch, Lukas verfasserin aut Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2022 Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. COVID-19 (dpeaa)DE-He213 Infectious disease models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Input estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Ordinary differential equations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Parameter estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Nonlinear systems (dpeaa)DE-He213 SEIR models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lorenz, Fabian aut Riedlinger, Torsten aut Taubenböck, Hannes aut Fischer, Martina aut Grabenhenrich, Linus aut Wolkewitz, Martin aut Binder, Harald aut Kreutz, Clemens aut Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology London : BioMed Central, 2001 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 1471-2288 nnns volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 22 2022 1 20 04
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 doi (DE-627)SPR050653822 (SPR)s12874-022-01579-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Refisch, Lukas verfasserin aut Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2022 Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. COVID-19 (dpeaa)DE-He213 Infectious disease models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Input estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Ordinary differential equations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Parameter estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Nonlinear systems (dpeaa)DE-He213 SEIR models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lorenz, Fabian aut Riedlinger, Torsten aut Taubenböck, Hannes aut Fischer, Martina aut Grabenhenrich, Linus aut Wolkewitz, Martin aut Binder, Harald aut Kreutz, Clemens aut Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology London : BioMed Central, 2001 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 1471-2288 nnns volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 22 2022 1 20 04
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 doi (DE-627)SPR050653822 (SPR)s12874-022-01579-9-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Refisch, Lukas verfasserin aut Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making 2022 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2022 Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. COVID-19 (dpeaa)DE-He213 Infectious disease models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Input estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Ordinary differential equations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Parameter estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Nonlinear systems (dpeaa)DE-He213 SEIR models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lorenz, Fabian aut Riedlinger, Torsten aut Taubenböck, Hannes aut Fischer, Martina aut Grabenhenrich, Linus aut Wolkewitz, Martin aut Binder, Harald aut Kreutz, Clemens aut Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology London : BioMed Central, 2001 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. (DE-627)326643818 (DE-600)2041362-2 1471-2288 nnns volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01579-9 kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 22 2022 1 20 04
language	English
source	Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04
sourceStr	Enthalten in BMC medical research methodology 22(2022), 1 vom: 20. Apr. volume:22 year:2022 number:1 day:20 month:04
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	COVID-19 Infectious disease models Input estimation Ordinary differential equations Parameter estimation Nonlinear systems SEIR models
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	BMC medical research methodology
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Refisch, Lukas @@aut@@ Lorenz, Fabian @@aut@@ Riedlinger, Torsten @@aut@@ Taubenböck, Hannes @@aut@@ Fischer, Martina @@aut@@ Grabenhenrich, Linus @@aut@@ Wolkewitz, Martin @@aut@@ Binder, Harald @@aut@@ Kreutz, Clemens @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2022-04-20T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	326643818
id	SPR050653822
language_de	englisch
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Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. 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author	Refisch, Lukas
spellingShingle	Refisch, Lukas misc COVID-19 misc Infectious disease models misc Input estimation misc Ordinary differential equations misc Parameter estimation misc Nonlinear systems misc SEIR models Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making
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topic_title	Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making COVID-19 (dpeaa)DE-He213 Infectious disease models (dpeaa)DE-He213 Input estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Ordinary differential equations (dpeaa)DE-He213 Parameter estimation (dpeaa)DE-He213 Nonlinear systems (dpeaa)DE-He213 SEIR models (dpeaa)DE-He213
topic	misc COVID-19 misc Infectious disease models misc Input estimation misc Ordinary differential equations misc Parameter estimation misc Nonlinear systems misc SEIR models
topic_unstemmed	misc COVID-19 misc Infectious disease models misc Input estimation misc Ordinary differential equations misc Parameter estimation misc Nonlinear systems misc SEIR models
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title	Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making
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title_full	Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making
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author_browse	Refisch, Lukas Lorenz, Fabian Riedlinger, Torsten Taubenböck, Hannes Fischer, Martina Grabenhenrich, Linus Wolkewitz, Martin Binder, Harald Kreutz, Clemens
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title_sort	data-driven prediction of covid-19 cases in germany for decision making
title_auth	Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making
abstract	Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. © The Author(s) 2022
abstractGer	Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. © The Author(s) 2022
abstract_unstemmed	Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a high interest in mathematical models describing and predicting the diverse aspects and implications of the virus outbreak. Model results represent an important part of the information base for the decision process on different administrative levels. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) initiated a project whose main goal is to predict COVID-19-specific occupation of beds in intensive care units: Steuerungs-Prognose von Intensivmedizinischen COVID-19 Kapazitäten (SPoCK). The incidence of COVID-19 cases is a crucial predictor for this occupation. Methods We developed a model based on ordinary differential equations for the COVID-19 spread with a time-dependent infection rate described by a spline. Furthermore, the model explicitly accounts for weekday-specific reporting and adjusts for reporting delay. The model is calibrated in a purely data-driven manner by a maximum likelihood approach. Uncertainties are evaluated using the profile likelihood method. The uncertainty about the appropriate modeling assumptions can be accounted for by including and merging results of different modelling approaches. The analysis uses data from Germany describing the COVID-19 spread from early 2020 until March 31st, 2021. Results The model is calibrated based on incident cases on a daily basis and provides daily predictions of incident COVID-19 cases for the upcoming three weeks including uncertainty estimates for Germany and its subregions. Derived quantities such as cumulative counts and 7-day incidences with corresponding uncertainties can be computed. The estimation of the time-dependent infection rate leads to an estimated reproduction factor that is oscillating around one. Data-driven estimation of the dark figure purely from incident cases is not feasible. Conclusions We successfully implemented a procedure to forecast near future COVID-19 incidences for diverse subregions in Germany which are made available to various decision makers via an interactive web application. Results of the incidence modeling are also used as a predictor for forecasting the need of intensive care units. © The Author(s) 2022
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title_short	Data-driven prediction of COVID-19 cases in Germany for decision making
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author2	Lorenz, Fabian Riedlinger, Torsten Taubenböck, Hannes Fischer, Martina Grabenhenrich, Linus Wolkewitz, Martin Binder, Harald Kreutz, Clemens
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