Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble
Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with re...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Hansen, Felicitas [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s) 2023 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Climate dynamics - Berlin : Springer, 1986, 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:61 ; year:2023 ; number:5-6 ; day:02 ; month:03 ; pages:2921-2936 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR052530965 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Hansen, Felicitas |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Circulation type changes |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climate change |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Large ensemble |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Scandinavia |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Circulation type classification |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a EC-Earth |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Belušić, Danijel |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wyser, Klaus |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Koenigk, Torben |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Climate dynamics |d Berlin : Springer, 1986 |g 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 |w (DE-627)268128561 |w (DE-600)1471747-5 |x 1432-0894 |7 nnns |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y doi (DE-627)SPR052530965 (SPR)s00382-023-06704-y-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Hansen, Felicitas verfasserin aut Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. Circulation type changes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Large ensemble (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scandinavia (dpeaa)DE-He213 Circulation type classification (dpeaa)DE-He213 EC-Earth (dpeaa)DE-He213 Belušić, Danijel aut Wyser, Klaus aut Koenigk, Torben aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 61 2023 5-6 02 03 2921-2936 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y doi (DE-627)SPR052530965 (SPR)s00382-023-06704-y-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Hansen, Felicitas verfasserin aut Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. Circulation type changes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Large ensemble (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scandinavia (dpeaa)DE-He213 Circulation type classification (dpeaa)DE-He213 EC-Earth (dpeaa)DE-He213 Belušić, Danijel aut Wyser, Klaus aut Koenigk, Torben aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 61 2023 5-6 02 03 2921-2936 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y doi (DE-627)SPR052530965 (SPR)s00382-023-06704-y-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Hansen, Felicitas verfasserin aut Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. Circulation type changes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Large ensemble (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scandinavia (dpeaa)DE-He213 Circulation type classification (dpeaa)DE-He213 EC-Earth (dpeaa)DE-He213 Belušić, Danijel aut Wyser, Klaus aut Koenigk, Torben aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 61 2023 5-6 02 03 2921-2936 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y doi (DE-627)SPR052530965 (SPR)s00382-023-06704-y-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Hansen, Felicitas verfasserin aut Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. Circulation type changes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Large ensemble (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scandinavia (dpeaa)DE-He213 Circulation type classification (dpeaa)DE-He213 EC-Earth (dpeaa)DE-He213 Belušić, Danijel aut Wyser, Klaus aut Koenigk, Torben aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 61 2023 5-6 02 03 2921-2936 |
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10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y doi (DE-627)SPR052530965 (SPR)s00382-023-06704-y-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Hansen, Felicitas verfasserin aut Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. Circulation type changes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Large ensemble (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scandinavia (dpeaa)DE-He213 Circulation type classification (dpeaa)DE-He213 EC-Earth (dpeaa)DE-He213 Belušić, Danijel aut Wyser, Klaus aut Koenigk, Torben aut Enthalten in Climate dynamics Berlin : Springer, 1986 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 (DE-627)268128561 (DE-600)1471747-5 1432-0894 nnns volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_381 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_612 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2119 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 61 2023 5-6 02 03 2921-2936 |
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Enthalten in Climate dynamics 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 |
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Enthalten in Climate dynamics 61(2023), 5-6 vom: 02. März, Seite 2921-2936 volume:61 year:2023 number:5-6 day:02 month:03 pages:2921-2936 |
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Hansen, Felicitas @@aut@@ Belušić, Danijel @@aut@@ Wyser, Klaus @@aut@@ Koenigk, Torben @@aut@@ |
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000naa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">SPR052530965</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20230727064725.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">230727s2023 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)SPR052530965</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(SPR)s00382-023-06704-y-e</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Hansen, Felicitas</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2023</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">© The Author(s) 2023</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. 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Hansen, Felicitas |
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Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble Circulation type changes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Climate change (dpeaa)DE-He213 Large ensemble (dpeaa)DE-He213 Scandinavia (dpeaa)DE-He213 Circulation type classification (dpeaa)DE-He213 EC-Earth (dpeaa)DE-He213 |
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future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the smhi large ensemble |
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Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble |
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Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. © The Author(s) 2023 |
| abstractGer |
Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. © The Author(s) 2023 |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract Being strongly influenced by internal climate variability, the atmospheric circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in the future climate is uncertain. This study addresses atmospheric circulation through representative circulation types (CTs) and investigates the CTs’ changes with respect to frequency and effect on surface temperature and precipitation over a pan-Scandinavian domain. The analysis is based on the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble performed with EC-Earth3: 50-member ensembles from one historical and six scenario simulations for the twenty-first century are used to assess internal variability and significance of changes. Although the results show no strong future changes in the CTs’ sea level pressure patterns, CT frequency changes suggest a future extension of summer conditions towards spring and autumn and point towards a clearer distinction between summer and winter. The present-climate CT effect on surface temperature is found to generally weaken which is consistent with a general decrease in temperature variability. Largest-scale and strongest temperature effect changes are projected between March and May for CT3, a cyclone towards the east of the domain associated with a domain-wide cooling effect that will likely be decreased towards the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly but of opposite sign, the CT effect on precipitation is strengthening as a result of the increased precipitation variability. Here, largest-scale and strongest effect enhancement is found for CT6, thus increasing its wetting effect over southern Scandinavia and drying effect west of the Scandes. Changes are generally largest towards the end of the twenty-first century and tend to increase with the forcing strength, thus maximizing for SSP585. © The Author(s) 2023 |
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5-6 |
| title_short |
Future changes of circulation types and their effects on surface air temperature and precipitation in the SMHI large ensemble |
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https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y |
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| author2 |
Belušić, Danijel Wyser, Klaus Koenigk, Torben |
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| doi_str |
10.1007/s00382-023-06704-y |
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2024-07-04T03:06:48.453Z |
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| score |
7.4014435 |