Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study

Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, part...
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Autor*in:	Taqi, Muhammad [verfasserIn] Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2023

Schlagwörter:	Cariogram ICDAS Dental caries Childhood caries Caries prevention

Anmerkung:	© The Author(s) 2023

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: BMC oral health - London : BioMed Central, 2001, 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt.
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:23 ; year:2023 ; number:1 ; day:24 ; month:10

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w

Katalog-ID:	SPR053512596

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520			\|a Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing.
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allfields	10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w doi (DE-627)SPR053512596 (SPR)s12903-023-03479-w-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Taqi, Muhammad verfasserin aut Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. Cariogram (dpeaa)DE-He213 ICDAS (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dental caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Childhood caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Caries prevention (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas aut Enthalten in BMC oral health London : BioMed Central, 2001 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt. (DE-627)355500108 (DE-600)2091511-1 1472-6831 nnns volume:23 year:2023 number:1 day:24 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 23 2023 1 24 10
spelling	10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w doi (DE-627)SPR053512596 (SPR)s12903-023-03479-w-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Taqi, Muhammad verfasserin aut Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. Cariogram (dpeaa)DE-He213 ICDAS (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dental caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Childhood caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Caries prevention (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas aut Enthalten in BMC oral health London : BioMed Central, 2001 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt. (DE-627)355500108 (DE-600)2091511-1 1472-6831 nnns volume:23 year:2023 number:1 day:24 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 23 2023 1 24 10
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w doi (DE-627)SPR053512596 (SPR)s12903-023-03479-w-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Taqi, Muhammad verfasserin aut Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. Cariogram (dpeaa)DE-He213 ICDAS (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dental caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Childhood caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Caries prevention (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas aut Enthalten in BMC oral health London : BioMed Central, 2001 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt. (DE-627)355500108 (DE-600)2091511-1 1472-6831 nnns volume:23 year:2023 number:1 day:24 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 23 2023 1 24 10
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w doi (DE-627)SPR053512596 (SPR)s12903-023-03479-w-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Taqi, Muhammad verfasserin aut Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. Cariogram (dpeaa)DE-He213 ICDAS (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dental caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Childhood caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Caries prevention (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas aut Enthalten in BMC oral health London : BioMed Central, 2001 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt. (DE-627)355500108 (DE-600)2091511-1 1472-6831 nnns volume:23 year:2023 number:1 day:24 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 23 2023 1 24 10
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w doi (DE-627)SPR053512596 (SPR)s12903-023-03479-w-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Taqi, Muhammad verfasserin aut Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2023 Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. Cariogram (dpeaa)DE-He213 ICDAS (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dental caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Childhood caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Caries prevention (dpeaa)DE-He213 Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas aut Enthalten in BMC oral health London : BioMed Central, 2001 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt. (DE-627)355500108 (DE-600)2091511-1 1472-6831 nnns volume:23 year:2023 number:1 day:24 month:10 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w kostenfrei Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 23 2023 1 24 10
language	English
source	Enthalten in BMC oral health 23(2023), 1 vom: 24. Okt. volume:23 year:2023 number:1 day:24 month:10
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Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. 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author	Taqi, Muhammad
spellingShingle	Taqi, Muhammad misc Cariogram misc ICDAS misc Dental caries misc Childhood caries misc Caries prevention Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study
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topic_title	Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study Cariogram (dpeaa)DE-He213 ICDAS (dpeaa)DE-He213 Dental caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Childhood caries (dpeaa)DE-He213 Caries prevention (dpeaa)DE-He213
topic	misc Cariogram misc ICDAS misc Dental caries misc Childhood caries misc Caries prevention
topic_unstemmed	misc Cariogram misc ICDAS misc Dental caries misc Childhood caries misc Caries prevention
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title	Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study
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title_full	Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study
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author_browse	Taqi, Muhammad Zaidi, Syed Jaffar Abbas
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title_sort	predictive validity of the reduced cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study
title_auth	Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study
abstract	Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. © The Author(s) 2023
abstractGer	Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. © The Author(s) 2023
abstract_unstemmed	Background The aim of this study is to assess the caries prediction of the reduced Cariogram by comparing baseline caries risk profiles with non-cavitated and cavitated lesions over periods of six, twelve, and 18 months. Methods From May 2016 to October 2017, seven schools in Bhakkar, Pakistan, participated in a cohort study. First base line examination was conducted followed by examinations at 6, 12 and 18 months. Children intraoral examinations were performed on portable dental chair with in school premises by a trained examiner. A modified ICDAS index was used to measure caries at baseline and at follow-up examinations after 6, 12, and 18-months. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its effectiveness for predicting dental caries increment. Results About 40% of children had a low-risk status, 30.5% medium risk, and 29.7% high risk, at baseline risk assessment. At 18 months, 73% of high-risk children, 59% of medium-risk children, and 41% of low-risk children showed a caries increment. For the reduced Cariogram model, the area under the curve on the 6, 12 and 18 months follow-up was 0.63, 0.65 and 0.70 respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicates that a reduced Cariogram can predict the progression of caries in both cavitated and non-cavitated lesions and model exhibits a level of discriminatory ability. While it might not achieve a very high accuracy, it suggests that the model is able to predict caries increment effectively than random guessing. © The Author(s) 2023
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title_short	Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study
url	https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12903-023-03479-w
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Predictive validity of the reduced Cariogram model for caries increment in non-cavitated and cavitated lesions: cohort study

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