Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region
Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on seco...
Ausführliche Beschreibung
Gespeichert in:
| Autor*in: |
Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan [verfasserIn] |
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| Format: |
E-Artikel |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
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| Schlagwörter: |
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| Anmerkung: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
Enthalten in: Sugar tech - Neu Delhi : Springer India, 1999, 26(2023), 1 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 264-273 |
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| Übergeordnetes Werk: |
volume:26 ; year:2023 ; number:1 ; day:22 ; month:12 ; pages:264-273 |
| Links: |
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| DOI / URN: |
10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 |
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| Katalog-ID: |
SPR054824702 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. | ||
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10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 doi (DE-627)SPR054824702 (SPR)s12355-023-01346-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan verfasserin aut Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. ARIMA (dpeaa)DE-He213 ARIMAX (dpeaa)DE-He213 Holt’s (dpeaa)DE-He213 Forecasting (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sugarcane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Instability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kumari, Binita aut Yadav, Shikha aut Shrivastava, Alok aut Neerugatti, Mahima Priyanka aut Enthalten in Sugar tech Neu Delhi : Springer India, 1999 26(2023), 1 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 264-273 (DE-627)570507685 (DE-600)2433394-3 0974-0740 nnns volume:26 year:2023 number:1 day:22 month:12 pages:264-273 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 26 2023 1 22 12 264-273 |
| spelling |
10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 doi (DE-627)SPR054824702 (SPR)s12355-023-01346-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan verfasserin aut Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. ARIMA (dpeaa)DE-He213 ARIMAX (dpeaa)DE-He213 Holt’s (dpeaa)DE-He213 Forecasting (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sugarcane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Instability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kumari, Binita aut Yadav, Shikha aut Shrivastava, Alok aut Neerugatti, Mahima Priyanka aut Enthalten in Sugar tech Neu Delhi : Springer India, 1999 26(2023), 1 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 264-273 (DE-627)570507685 (DE-600)2433394-3 0974-0740 nnns volume:26 year:2023 number:1 day:22 month:12 pages:264-273 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 26 2023 1 22 12 264-273 |
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10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 doi (DE-627)SPR054824702 (SPR)s12355-023-01346-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan verfasserin aut Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. ARIMA (dpeaa)DE-He213 ARIMAX (dpeaa)DE-He213 Holt’s (dpeaa)DE-He213 Forecasting (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sugarcane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Instability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kumari, Binita aut Yadav, Shikha aut Shrivastava, Alok aut Neerugatti, Mahima Priyanka aut Enthalten in Sugar tech Neu Delhi : Springer India, 1999 26(2023), 1 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 264-273 (DE-627)570507685 (DE-600)2433394-3 0974-0740 nnns volume:26 year:2023 number:1 day:22 month:12 pages:264-273 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 26 2023 1 22 12 264-273 |
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10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 doi (DE-627)SPR054824702 (SPR)s12355-023-01346-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan verfasserin aut Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. ARIMA (dpeaa)DE-He213 ARIMAX (dpeaa)DE-He213 Holt’s (dpeaa)DE-He213 Forecasting (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sugarcane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Instability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kumari, Binita aut Yadav, Shikha aut Shrivastava, Alok aut Neerugatti, Mahima Priyanka aut Enthalten in Sugar tech Neu Delhi : Springer India, 1999 26(2023), 1 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 264-273 (DE-627)570507685 (DE-600)2433394-3 0974-0740 nnns volume:26 year:2023 number:1 day:22 month:12 pages:264-273 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 26 2023 1 22 12 264-273 |
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10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 doi (DE-627)SPR054824702 (SPR)s12355-023-01346-0-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan verfasserin aut Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region 2023 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. ARIMA (dpeaa)DE-He213 ARIMAX (dpeaa)DE-He213 Holt’s (dpeaa)DE-He213 Forecasting (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sugarcane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Instability (dpeaa)DE-He213 Kumari, Binita aut Yadav, Shikha aut Shrivastava, Alok aut Neerugatti, Mahima Priyanka aut Enthalten in Sugar tech Neu Delhi : Springer India, 1999 26(2023), 1 vom: 22. Dez., Seite 264-273 (DE-627)570507685 (DE-600)2433394-3 0974-0740 nnns volume:26 year:2023 number:1 day:22 month:12 pages:264-273 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12355-023-01346-0 lizenzpflichtig Volltext GBV_USEFLAG_A SYSFLAG_A GBV_SPRINGER GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_31 GBV_ILN_32 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_70 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_90 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_100 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_120 GBV_ILN_138 GBV_ILN_150 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_152 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_171 GBV_ILN_187 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_250 GBV_ILN_281 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_370 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_636 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2004 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2007 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2026 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2034 GBV_ILN_2037 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2039 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2049 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2059 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2064 GBV_ILN_2065 GBV_ILN_2068 GBV_ILN_2088 GBV_ILN_2093 GBV_ILN_2106 GBV_ILN_2107 GBV_ILN_2108 GBV_ILN_2110 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2112 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2118 GBV_ILN_2122 GBV_ILN_2129 GBV_ILN_2143 GBV_ILN_2144 GBV_ILN_2147 GBV_ILN_2148 GBV_ILN_2152 GBV_ILN_2153 GBV_ILN_2188 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_2232 GBV_ILN_2336 GBV_ILN_2446 GBV_ILN_2470 GBV_ILN_2472 GBV_ILN_2507 GBV_ILN_2522 GBV_ILN_2548 GBV_ILN_4035 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4046 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4242 GBV_ILN_4246 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4251 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4326 GBV_ILN_4328 GBV_ILN_4333 GBV_ILN_4334 GBV_ILN_4335 GBV_ILN_4336 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4393 GBV_ILN_4700 AR 26 2023 1 22 12 264-273 |
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Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. 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Srivastava, Aditya Bhooshan |
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Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region ARIMA (dpeaa)DE-He213 ARIMAX (dpeaa)DE-He213 Holt’s (dpeaa)DE-He213 Forecasting (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sugarcane (dpeaa)DE-He213 Instability (dpeaa)DE-He213 |
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Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region |
| abstract |
Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
| abstractGer |
Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
| abstract_unstemmed |
Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the trends in sugarcane output in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by employing three different models, i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMAX, and the last one Holt linear trend. The study based on secondary data spanning from FAO 1961 to 2020 was utilized for forecasting up to 2030. Comparative analysis revealed that the ARIMAX model outperformed the other models, exhibiting higher $ R^{2} $values and lower values of MAPE, MPE, RMSE, and MAE. The findings indicated that the ARIMAX model (1,1,5) was most suitable for forecasting sugarcane production in Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka with a 95% accuracy level. By the year 2030, the projected sugarcane production is expected to be 3806.84 thousand tonnes in Bangladesh, 124,936.77 thousand tonnes in China, 421,559.43 thousand tonnes in India, 4467.87 thousand tonnes in Nepal, 78,084.75 thousand tonnes in Pakistan, and 943.67 thousand tonnes in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the study observed a decreasing trend in instability across all countries, except for China where instability was found to be increasing. This research is of utmost importance as it contributes to understanding the future dynamics between sugarcane production and demand, thereby addressing the potential gap in the coming years. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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Comparative Analysis of Sugarcane Production for South East Asia Region |
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Kumari, Binita Yadav, Shikha Shrivastava, Alok Neerugatti, Mahima Priyanka |
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| score |
7.401348 |