New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:

Autor*in:	Ye, Rong [verfasserIn] Lai, Yingsi [verfasserIn] Gu, Jing [verfasserIn]

Format:	E-Artikel
Sprache:	Englisch

Erschienen:	2024

Schlagwörter:	HIV Sexual transmission routes Men who have sex with men and women General population Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China

Anmerkung:	© The Author(s) 2024

Übergeordnetes Werk:	Enthalten in: BMC public health - BioMed Central, 2001, 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai
Übergeordnetes Werk:	volume:24 ; year:2024 ; number:1 ; day:14 ; month:05

Links:	Volltext

DOI / URN:	10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z

Katalog-ID:	SPR055852718

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245	1	0	\|a New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
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520			\|a Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.
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allfields	10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z doi (DE-627)SPR055852718 (SPR)s12889-024-18735-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 VZ 610 VZ 44.00 bkl Ye, Rong verfasserin aut New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2024 Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. HIV (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sexual transmission routes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Men who have sex with men and women (dpeaa)DE-He213 General population (dpeaa)DE-He213 Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lai, Yingsi verfasserin aut Gu, Jing verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC public health BioMed Central, 2001 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai (DE-627)326643583 (DE-600)2041338-5 1471-2458 nnns volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z X:SPRINGER Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext SYSFLAG_0 GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 VZ AR 24 2024 1 14 05
spelling	10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z doi (DE-627)SPR055852718 (SPR)s12889-024-18735-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 VZ 610 VZ 44.00 bkl Ye, Rong verfasserin aut New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2024 Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. HIV (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sexual transmission routes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Men who have sex with men and women (dpeaa)DE-He213 General population (dpeaa)DE-He213 Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lai, Yingsi verfasserin aut Gu, Jing verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC public health BioMed Central, 2001 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai (DE-627)326643583 (DE-600)2041338-5 1471-2458 nnns volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z X:SPRINGER Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext SYSFLAG_0 GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 VZ AR 24 2024 1 14 05
allfields_unstemmed	10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z doi (DE-627)SPR055852718 (SPR)s12889-024-18735-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 VZ 610 VZ 44.00 bkl Ye, Rong verfasserin aut New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2024 Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. HIV (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sexual transmission routes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Men who have sex with men and women (dpeaa)DE-He213 General population (dpeaa)DE-He213 Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lai, Yingsi verfasserin aut Gu, Jing verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC public health BioMed Central, 2001 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai (DE-627)326643583 (DE-600)2041338-5 1471-2458 nnns volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z X:SPRINGER Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext SYSFLAG_0 GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 VZ AR 24 2024 1 14 05
allfieldsGer	10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z doi (DE-627)SPR055852718 (SPR)s12889-024-18735-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 VZ 610 VZ 44.00 bkl Ye, Rong verfasserin aut New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2024 Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. HIV (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sexual transmission routes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Men who have sex with men and women (dpeaa)DE-He213 General population (dpeaa)DE-He213 Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lai, Yingsi verfasserin aut Gu, Jing verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC public health BioMed Central, 2001 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai (DE-627)326643583 (DE-600)2041338-5 1471-2458 nnns volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z X:SPRINGER Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext SYSFLAG_0 GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 VZ AR 24 2024 1 14 05
allfieldsSound	10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z doi (DE-627)SPR055852718 (SPR)s12889-024-18735-z-e DE-627 ger DE-627 rakwb eng 610 VZ 610 VZ 44.00 bkl Ye, Rong verfasserin aut New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model 2024 Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier © The Author(s) 2024 Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. HIV (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sexual transmission routes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Men who have sex with men and women (dpeaa)DE-He213 General population (dpeaa)DE-He213 Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China (dpeaa)DE-He213 Lai, Yingsi verfasserin aut Gu, Jing verfasserin aut Enthalten in BMC public health BioMed Central, 2001 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai (DE-627)326643583 (DE-600)2041338-5 1471-2458 nnns volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05 https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z X:SPRINGER Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext SYSFLAG_0 GBV_SPRINGER SSG-OLC-PHA GBV_ILN_11 GBV_ILN_20 GBV_ILN_22 GBV_ILN_23 GBV_ILN_24 GBV_ILN_39 GBV_ILN_40 GBV_ILN_60 GBV_ILN_62 GBV_ILN_63 GBV_ILN_65 GBV_ILN_69 GBV_ILN_73 GBV_ILN_74 GBV_ILN_95 GBV_ILN_105 GBV_ILN_110 GBV_ILN_151 GBV_ILN_161 GBV_ILN_170 GBV_ILN_206 GBV_ILN_213 GBV_ILN_224 GBV_ILN_230 GBV_ILN_285 GBV_ILN_293 GBV_ILN_602 GBV_ILN_702 GBV_ILN_2001 GBV_ILN_2003 GBV_ILN_2005 GBV_ILN_2006 GBV_ILN_2008 GBV_ILN_2009 GBV_ILN_2010 GBV_ILN_2011 GBV_ILN_2014 GBV_ILN_2015 GBV_ILN_2020 GBV_ILN_2021 GBV_ILN_2025 GBV_ILN_2027 GBV_ILN_2031 GBV_ILN_2038 GBV_ILN_2044 GBV_ILN_2048 GBV_ILN_2050 GBV_ILN_2055 GBV_ILN_2056 GBV_ILN_2057 GBV_ILN_2061 GBV_ILN_2111 GBV_ILN_2113 GBV_ILN_2190 GBV_ILN_4012 GBV_ILN_4037 GBV_ILN_4112 GBV_ILN_4125 GBV_ILN_4126 GBV_ILN_4249 GBV_ILN_4305 GBV_ILN_4306 GBV_ILN_4307 GBV_ILN_4313 GBV_ILN_4322 GBV_ILN_4323 GBV_ILN_4324 GBV_ILN_4325 GBV_ILN_4338 GBV_ILN_4367 GBV_ILN_4700 44.00 VZ AR 24 2024 1 14 05
language	English
source	Enthalten in BMC public health 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05
sourceStr	Enthalten in BMC public health 24(2024), 1 vom: 14. Mai volume:24 year:2024 number:1 day:14 month:05
format_phy_str_mv	Article
institution	findex.gbv.de
topic_facet	HIV Sexual transmission routes Men who have sex with men and women General population Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China
dewey-raw	610
isfreeaccess_bool	true
container_title	BMC public health
authorswithroles_txt_mv	Ye, Rong @@aut@@ Lai, Yingsi @@aut@@ Gu, Jing @@aut@@
publishDateDaySort_date	2024-05-14T00:00:00Z
hierarchy_top_id	326643583
dewey-sort	3610
id	SPR055852718
language_de	englisch
fullrecord	<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01000naa a22002652 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">SPR055852718</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-627</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20240515064723.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">240515s2024 xx \|\|\|\|\|o 00\| \|\|eng c</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-627)SPR055852718</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(SPR)s12889-024-18735-z-e</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="c">DE-627</subfield><subfield code="e">rakwb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">610</subfield><subfield code="q">VZ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2="4"><subfield code="a">610</subfield><subfield code="q">VZ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">44.00</subfield><subfield code="2">bkl</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ye, Rong</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="c">2024</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Computermedien</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ressource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">© The Author(s) 2024</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">HIV</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Sexual transmission routes</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Men who have sex with men and women</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">General population</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Lai, Yingsi</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Gu, Jing</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">BMC public health</subfield><subfield code="d">BioMed Central, 2001</subfield><subfield code="g">24(2024), 1 vom: 14. 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author	Ye, Rong
spellingShingle	Ye, Rong ddc 610 bkl 44.00 misc HIV misc Sexual transmission routes misc Men who have sex with men and women misc General population misc Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
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topic_title	610 VZ 44.00 bkl New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model HIV (dpeaa)DE-He213 Sexual transmission routes (dpeaa)DE-He213 Men who have sex with men and women (dpeaa)DE-He213 General population (dpeaa)DE-He213 Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China (dpeaa)DE-He213
topic	ddc 610 bkl 44.00 misc HIV misc Sexual transmission routes misc Men who have sex with men and women misc General population misc Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China
topic_unstemmed	ddc 610 bkl 44.00 misc HIV misc Sexual transmission routes misc Men who have sex with men and women misc General population misc Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China
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title	New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
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title_full	New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
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title_sort	new sexually transmitted hiv infections from 2016 to 2050 in guangdong province, china: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
title_auth	New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
abstract	Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. © The Author(s) 2024
abstractGer	Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. © The Author(s) 2024
abstract_unstemmed	Background In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population. © The Author(s) 2024
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title_short	New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model
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The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. Results New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894). Conclusions Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">HIV</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Sexual transmission routes</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Men who have sex with men and women</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">General population</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China</subfield><subfield code="7">(dpeaa)DE-He213</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Lai, Yingsi</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Gu, Jing</subfield><subfield code="e">verfasserin</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Enthalten in</subfield><subfield code="t">BMC public health</subfield><subfield code="d">BioMed Central, 2001</subfield><subfield code="g">24(2024), 1 vom: 14. 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New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

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